Thursday, January 29, 2015

2008: when all dreams went away

In 2008, an important line was crossed by the rate of participation in labor force, LFPR. Figure 1 shows that the LFPR in the youngest group fell below the level in the group between 55 and 64 years of age. In a way, the US became the country of old workers without perspective. Younger people lost their long term perspective for approximately 35 years. The Kondratiev wave rules.
Figures 2 and 3 demonstrate that the reason behind the LFPR fall in the younger group is related to the fall in labor force caused by the fall in civilian noninstitutional population. The younger population drives the Kondratiev wave.

Figure 1. The rate of participation in labor force in the youngest age group 16 to 24 years and in the group between 55 and 64 years of age, i.e. before retirement.

Figure 2. Labor force in the same age groups as in Figure 1.
Figure 3. Civilian noninstitutional population in the same age groups as in Figure 1.


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