The bulls have pushed aside the bears on Wall Street — for now. Signs of optimism following three consecutive winning days in the stock market have replaced the doom and gloom mood so prevalent in the two prior weeks.
Having already heard the bullish case from Doug Kass and James Paulsen earlier this week, Tech Ticker decided to invite Mike “Mish” Shedlock, author of Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, back on the show to hear the other side of the argument.
Is he bearish? You bet! – Video link available here.
“The optimism out there is rather insane,” he says. There’s only a 15-20% chance of the market rallying, Mish tells guest host and Business Insider deputy editor Joseph Weisenthal. “It’s more likely we go down there and test the March lows, and there’s a decent chance actually that we break those lows,” he says.
Mish says “it is nuts to be net long” stocks right now in the face of all these headwinds:
– Slowdown in Europe as austerity measures take hold.
– Slowdown in U.S. as stimulus fades, housing remains weak, state and local governments cutback
– China looks to cool its economy in the face of growing housing bubble
Until Mish sees signs of sustainable job growth, he’ll be firm in his bearish stance. “Without a driver for jobs I don’t know how someone could be bullish on the stock market.”
If not stocks, then what?
Mish is sticking with what’s worked this year: Treasuries and gold. Treasury yields are still near record lows, but he think with the macroeconomy the way it is, it’s very possible, “the bull market in Treasuries is not over.” As for gold, he’d buy on the dips.
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A young and savvy, yet experienced and accomplished investments mogul since ‘01; Michael has amassed a fortune as a private self investor. Recently starting his own successful blog and turning it in to a corporation — MIV Investments Inc., a company offering advice to thousands of people worldwide and attracting contracts from various reputable sources. His articles and publications have been linked to Forbes, CNN Money, Reuters, Bloomberg, and many other top worldwide mainstream media sources.
Michael Vlaicu
stupid short