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	<title>The Market Financial &#187; Daily Profiles</title>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500 Hits the Wall of Worry (Charts)</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Jul 2010 06:54:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●Bears See Slowing Economy, Disappointing Earnings SeasonMarket OverviewS&#38;P 500The S&#38;P 500 closed the week at 1064.88 and now has been below the 200 day moving average for 18 consecutive trading days. The 50 day simple moving average de...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TEE4o9q-ttI/AAAAAAAAAUw/I0VwVh_d_8Q/s1600/BearBull.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" hw="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TEE4o9q-ttI/AAAAAAAAAUw/I0VwVh_d_8Q/s320/BearBull.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Bears See Slowing Economy, Disappointing Earnings Season</span></div><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Market Overview</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500</span></strong><br />The S&amp;P 500 closed the week at 1064.88 and now has been below the 200 day moving average for 18 consecutive trading days. The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on June 23 - a Death Cross - and then descended below the 200 day sma on July 2 - another Death Cross. The SPX continues in both an intermediate-term and long-term bear market.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The S&amp;P 500, SPX, is&nbsp;down&nbsp;-1.21% for the week, up +3.32% for the month, down -4.50% for the year, and up +57.40% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. In addition, SPX is down -12.52% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Euro, via the Euro/US Dollar price, EURUSD, rallied this&nbsp;week&nbsp;+2.29% to over $1.29. The US Dollar Index, USDX, has pulled back from the 2010 YTD high of 88.51 at the Monday, June 7 close to 82.56, down -1.70% for the week. There has been some disconnect&nbsp;between the&nbsp;Euro, US&nbsp;Dollar, and S&amp;P 500.&nbsp;The Euro had been the tail wagging the dog, that is, the Euro goes down then the US Dollar Index goes up and the SPX goes down or all of this vice versa. However, now the uncertainty over the viability of the USA economic recovery and a disappointing earnings season has become a variable. The Euro rallied&nbsp; this week but the S&amp;P 500 did not.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Major USA Equity Indexes</span></strong><br />The Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ 100, S&amp;P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 have all fallen well below the 2010 YTD highs. The bullish trends are broken. For comparative purposes, the current price status, intermediate-term and long-term trends, dates generated, and the percentage off the 2010 YTD high are:<br /><div style="text-align: justify;">S&amp;P 500 Below 200d sma; Bear 5-20-10; Bear June 2010, -12.52%</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Russell 2000 Below 200d sma; Bear 5-26-10, Bear July 2010, <strong><span style="color: red;">-17.73%</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">NASDAQ Composite Below 200d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bear July 2010, -13.88%</div><div style="text-align: justify;">NASDAQ 100 Below 200d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bull July 2010, -12.25%</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 Below 200d sma; Bear 5-20.10; Bear July 2010, -9.88%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Currencies</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The two key currencies affecting the markets right now:</div><div style="text-align: justify;">US Dollar Index Below 100d sma; <strong><span style="color: red;">Bear</span></strong> 7-13-10, Bull January 2010</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Euro/US Dollar Above 100d sma; <strong><span style="color: #274e13;">Bull</span></strong> 7-6-10; Bear December 2009<br /><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Economic and Market News</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A review and weekly update of USA and World market and economic news and fundamental analysis is <a href="http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspot.com/2010/07/economic-market-news-usa-economic.html">here</a>. The IMF issued a partial update of their semi-annual World Economic Outlook as of June 30 which is reviewed <a href="http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspot.com/2010/07/imf-update-global-recovery-continues.html">here</a>. The full semiannual World Economic Outlook issued in April is reviewed <a href="http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspot.com/2010/04/imf-world-economic-outlook-april-2010.html">here</a>. In summary, the IMF sees the world economic recovery continuing. Sentiment is "cautiously optimistic" perhaps leaning to "extremely cautious optimism" about the global recovery but it appears a second half 2010 slowdown is in progress for the world and the USA.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">USA Quarterly Earnings Season</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Earnings season began this past week and it is not going well overall. Bank of America, Citigroup, and General Electric were a disappointment with low revenues yet high profits. This indicates that cost cutting, not demand, is driving up profits . This next week should determine the mood of the market towards earnings season - bullish or bearish. First quarter earnings were very encouraging, especially in the technology, financial, and industrial sectors but the second quarter needs to exceed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways?</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We have several major market issues and variables. Overall, I continue to foresee more sideways trading and possible high volatility, with a downside bias until some of this market turmoil settles down. By market turmoil, I mean the EU Crisis primarily and now uncertainty about the strength, even the viability of the USA economic recovery secondarily. Only then will the bottom, and therefore support, be in. Doug Kass stated on July 7 a summer rally has arrived and will continue through earnings season, which starts Monday. Hopefully, he is correct but there are a lot of bears calling the reverse.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Volatility</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Volatility has been high since the VIX put in a bottom in mid-April. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is now at a calmer 24.98 and is down -17.7% for the week. Hopefully this signals the SPX can hold this week's gains, barring more bad news out of Europe or dismal USA economic data.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Hits the Wall of Worry</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Daily Chart</span></strong> Below is the SPX daily chart for 2010. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Current Close 1064.88 (Yellow horizontal line)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2010 YTD High 4-23-10 1217.28</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2010 YTD Low 7-2-10 1022.58</div><div style="text-align: justify;">YE 12-31-09 1115.10</div><div style="text-align: justify;">10 Month EMA 1077.92</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TEFL58eDg3I/AAAAAAAAAU0/fW8HcjGH4Z8/s1600/SPXDly071610.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" hw="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TEFL58eDg3I/AAAAAAAAAU0/fW8HcjGH4Z8/s640/SPXDly071610.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Intermediate-Term Trend</span></strong> The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bear market for the SPX on May 20. That is, the 50d sma is greater than the 25d sma. An intermediate-term bull market had previously been in effect since March 16.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Resistance</span></strong> The 50 day simple moving average (1090.21) has proven to be the key resistance this past week. SPX regained the 50d sma on July 14 only to drop back below on July 16. This was the first time SPX has closed above the 50d sma since May 2! The current close, the yellow horizontal line, has pulled back dramatically since the April 23 YTD closing high of 1217.28. There are multiple levels of resistance above. The 1100 area, a benchmark and milestone price is the next significant and important resistance. The 200 day simple moving average (1112.35) has proven to be resistance and the SPX has been below for 18 consecutive trading days.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Support</span></strong> There are multiple levels of support below. The 200d sma had been support that failed. The 2010 YTD closing low was set on July 2 at 1022.58 is absolutely critical support. The previous 2010 YTD closing lows of 1050.47 and 1056.74 on June 7 and February 8, respectively, are important support. Both of these prices are key benchmarks and psychological prices for support. Based on the volatility of the market, these support prices still are not far below.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Moving Averages</span></strong> SPX has plunged through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages and is now once again&nbsp;below. the 25d sma.&nbsp;The 25d sma is descending&nbsp;and&nbsp;below the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is plunging and crossed below the 100d sma on June 23, a Death Cross, and below the 200d sma on July 2, another Death Cross. The 100d sma is slightly descending and 200d sma is slightly ascending.&nbsp;SPX dropping below the 200d and failing to hold the 50d is disappointing.</div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Highest Uptrend Line</span></strong> The higher yellow uptrend line, a measure of the rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low of 1056.74 was the bottom of the first 2010 pullback, before this current plunge and new 2010 YTD low. SPX broke through this uptrend line on May 13 and has been below for 45 consecutive trading days. I have left this uptrend line intact to observe whether SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent although this seems more a remote possibility each week.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Middle&nbsp;Uptrend Line</span></strong> The middle yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the previous 2010 YTD closing low of 1050.47 set on June 7. SPX broke down through this trendline for a second time on July 16.&nbsp;I have left this uptrend line intact to observe whether SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent. Yet another trendline could be drawn utilizing the new 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.58 on July 2.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Lowest Uptrend Line </span></strong>The&nbsp;lowest yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the&nbsp;current 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.53 set on July 2. SPX has stayed above&nbsp;this trendline since the next trading day, July 6.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Downtrend Line</span></strong> The downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX has remained well below this downtrend line since.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Relative Strength Index (RSI)</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">RSI 14 day = 46.29 is reasonable&nbsp;and well above the recent July 6 abysmal low of <strong>10.40</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">RSI 28 day = 52.47 is reasonable and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The RSI's are off the lows and indicate plenty of upside potential.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">MACD (12,26,9)</span></strong> The MACD switched to bullish on July 9 but is downtrending after the July 16 downdraft.&nbsp;MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic. MACD peaked on June 18 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Long-Term Trend</span></strong> The 10 month exponential moving average of 1077.92 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is below this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market had arrived and has regained and lost the indicator several times which indicates uncertainty and lack of trend.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Conclusion</span></strong> Uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery and the Euro Crisis have caused the markets to break the bull market trend that began in March 2009, with a downside bias. The intermediate term trend continues bearish and the long term trend is neutral to bearish. The technical indicators such as resistance, support, trendlines, RSIs, and MACD had been pushed to extremes since the April 23 YTD peak.&nbsp;The Bears, the Sellers,&nbsp;are back&nbsp;in control as of July 16. This next week of earnings season will determine if the Bulls can rally.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the SPX monthly chart since January 2005. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal line, the current price, plus the yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart. SPX is currently below the 10m ema which signals a long-term bear market.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TEFMK8e7IRI/AAAAAAAAAU4/1n_rGuyBoX4/s1600/SPXMo071610.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" hw="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TEFMK8e7IRI/AAAAAAAAAU4/1n_rGuyBoX4/s640/SPXMo071610.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Disclosure</span></strong><br />We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/MatrixMarkets">Follow</a> <strong><span style="color: #660000;">MatrixMarkets</span></strong> On Twitter!<br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/5565288186605875491-6394069811885180042?l=matrixmarkets.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>JPMorgan And Citigroup Earnings Rings Memories Of Lehman Brothers (NYSE:JPM), (NYSE:C), (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:FAZ)</title>
		<link>http://www.themarketfinancial.com/jpmorgan-and-citigroup-earnings-bring-back-memories-of-lehman-brothers-nysejpm-nysec-nysespy-nysefaz/14351?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=jpmorgan-and-citigroup-earnings-bring-back-memories-of-lehman-brothers-nysejpm-nysec-nysespy-nysefaz</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jul 2010 04:39:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Vlaicu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mid and Large Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Markets]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.themarketfinancial.com/?p=14351</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With U.S. banks ready to kick off earnings, its important you understand how full of baloney these numbers and balance sheets will be, especially given the future guidance which always have that little &#8220;unforeseen economic woes&#8221; fine-print style disclaimers that no one seems to speak of. Seems like just yesterday we had the same Wall [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With U.S. banks ready to kick off earnings, its important you understand how full of baloney these numbers and balance sheets will be, especially given the future guidance which always have that little &#8220;unforeseen economic woes&#8221; fine-print style disclaimers that no one seems to speak of. Seems like just yesterday we had the same Wall Street analysts forecasting a Lehman Brothers comeback, upgrading shares and inviting their wealthy clients to &#8220;go all in&#8221;. Hmmm&#8230; sounds rather similar to what Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) advised their clients to do prior to this earnings season, dont&#8217;cha think?</p>
<p>Most of the stories you will read today about the <a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/11/lehman-directors-did-not-breach-duties-examiner-finds/#reports" rel="nofollow" title="The court-appointed examiner’s report, divided into nine  volumes." >2,200-page document</a> that lays out how <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/lehman_brothers_holdings_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org" rel="nofollow" title="More articles about Lehman Brothers." >Lehman Brothers</a> used  accounting gimmicks to conceal its true financial condition will  understate just how important the lies told by its top executives were.</p>
<p>This is one of those few news stories where there is much more than  meets eye. The headlines are understating the seriousness of the  deception Lehman&#8217;s executives employed in  an effort to fool investors and creditors about the health of their  investment bank.</p>
<p>The health of Lehman&#8217;s balance sheet  was such an important question in 2008 that the bank went out of its way  to claim multiple times that it was reducing the size of its balance  sheet. Let&#8217;s start with <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/06/16/lehman-brothers-f2q08-earnings-transcript/" rel="nofollow" >the  earnings ca</a><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/06/16/lehman-brothers-f2q08-earnings-transcript/" rel="nofollow" >ll  in June 2008.</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Regarding our balance sheet, we reduced our gross assets by $147  billion over the quarter, which exceeded the targets that we set,&#8221; chief  executive Dick Fuld said at the start of the June 16th conference call  in 2008.</p>
<p>&#8220;Turning now to leverage, we reduced our gross assets by $147 billion  &#8212; from $786 billion to $639 billion &#8212; in the second quarter and we  reduced net assets by $70 billion &#8212; from $397 billion to $327 billion.  As a result, we reduced our gross leverage from 31.7X times to 24.3X at  May 31, and we reduced net leverage from 15.4X to 12X prior to the  impact of last week&#8217;s capital raise,&#8221; chief financial officer Ian Lowitt said on the same call.</p>
<p>Thanks to the bankruptcy examiner&#8217;s report, we now know this was not  true. Lehman&#8217;s deleveraging was largely an  accounting fiction. Fifty billion of it&#8217;s supposedly $70 billion  reduction in assets was produced entirely through the Repo 105  transactions.</p>
<p>The importance of this deception cannot be overstated. Their should  be no doubt in anyone&#8217;s mind that the amount of leverage and the size of  the balance sheet was pretty much all that mattered at the time. The  catch phrase at the time was &#8220;Earnings are the past. The balance sheet  is the future.&#8221; The extra details the firm was offering on that June  conference call were meant to reassure everyone about the health of the  balance sheet.</p>
<p>On that same call, the third question came from Merrill&#8217;s Guy  Moszkowski.</p>
<p><strong>Guy Moszkowski, Merrill Lynch</strong></p>
<p>Just a follow-up on the question about  the asset sales and whether there were vintage concentrations or  anything like that. How about with respect to timing? Were the sales  pretty much ratably spread over the quarter, or were they more skewed  toward either the earlier or the latter part of the quarter?</p>
<p><strong>Ian T. Lowitt, Chief Financial  Officer</strong></p>
<p>They were spread over the whole quarter. I  mean, it was a focus of the entire firm to de-lever through the course  of the quarter. That was obviously a focus which shifted attention, to  some extent, and I think that impacted the quarter in some ways. But it  was even across the whole quarter so there was no concentration in terms  of the timing. That was true across all of the elements, so that would  be true within residential as within commercial.</p>
<p>This wasn&#8217;t true at all. In fact, according to the bankruptcy  examiner&#8217;s report, $50 billion in alleged &#8220;sales&#8221; were actually repos  timed to reduce the balance sheet for exactly the period necessary for  earnings reporting.</p>
<div>Read more: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-lehmans-executives-lied-about-their-assets-to-fool-everyone-about-their-financial-health-2010-3#ixzz0tirAzZG2" rel="nofollow" >http://www.businessinsider.com/how-lehmans-executives-lied-about-their-assets-to-fool-everyone-about-their-financial-health-2010-3#ixzz0tirAzZG2</a></div>
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		<title>U.S. Bank Fraudulent Earnings Exposed By MarketWatch (NYSE:FAZ), (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:C), (NYSE:BAC), (NYSE:JPM), (NYSE:GS)</title>
		<link>http://www.themarketfinancial.com/bank-fraudulent-earnings-exposed-by-marketwatch-nysefaz-nysespy-nysec-nysebac-nysejpm-nysegs/12137?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=bank-fraudulent-earnings-exposed-by-marketwatch-nysefaz-nysespy-nysec-nysebac-nysejpm-nysegs</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 05:08:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Vlaicu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Profiles]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.themarketfinancial.com/?p=12137</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By David Weidner, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) &#8212; Fairy tale season is about to begin. Wall Street banks and brokerages are readying second-quarter numbers for mass digestion. They&#8217;ll show healthy balance sheets, tolerable risk levels and have all the trappings of well-run companies. Don&#8217;t believe a word of it. If the second quarter is anything [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="byline">By <a href="mailto:dweidner@marketwatch.com" rel="nofollow" >David Weidner</a>,  MarketWatch</p>
<p>NEW YORK (MarketWatch) &#8212; Fairy tale season is about to begin.</p>
<p>Wall Street banks and brokerages are readying second-quarter numbers for  mass digestion. They&#8217;ll show healthy balance sheets, tolerable risk  levels and have all the trappings of well-run companies.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t believe a word of it.</p>
<p>If the second quarter is anything like quarters of the past couple  years, risk is up and capital is down. And what you&#8217;ll see on earnings  day bears little resemblance to the business being conducted between the  bookends of the start and end of the latest quarter. After all, Wall  Street is an industry built on prevaricating for clients &#8212; Enron Corp.,  Greece and Parmalat Spa 							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/PLT?countrycode=it" rel="nofollow" title="Parmalat SpA" >IT:PLT</a> <strong>1.92</strong>, 							0.00, 							0.00%) 					 to name a few &#8212; why would it come clean with its own  financials?</p>
<p>Late last week, Bank of America Corp. 							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/BAC" rel="nofollow" title="Bank of  America Corp" >BAC</a> <strong>15.36</strong>, 							+0.15, 							+0.99%) 					 became the latest big financial firm to cop to manipulating  end-of-the-quarter earnings. In a letter to the Securities and Exchange  Commission, B. of A. said it masked debt levels between 2007 and 2009  by making six trades designed to shine up the numbers on earnings day.</p>
<div>
<div><img id="image201" src="http://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AC878_moynih_ME_20091216201716.jpg" alt="Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan." width="377" height="252" /> Reuters</div>
<p>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.</p>
</div>
<p>You can bet that the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank isn&#8217;t the only one using  the David Blaine accounting method. In April, the The Wall Street  Journal examined data from the Federal Reserve bank of New York and  found 18 banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc.  							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GS" rel="nofollow" title="Goldman  Sachs Group Inc" >GS</a> <strong>137.65</strong>, 							+0.40, 							+0.29%) 					, Morgan Stanley 							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/MS" rel="nofollow" title="Morgan  Stanley" >MS</a> <strong>24.70</strong>, 							+0.14, 							+0.57%) 					 and J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co.  							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/JPM" rel="nofollow" title="JPMorgan  Chase &amp; Co" >JPM</a> <strong>39.51</strong>, 							+0.32, 							+0.82%) 					 masked debt levels in the five quarters ending in March.</p>
<p>The Journal found the banks &#8220;understated the debt levels used to fund  securities trades by lowering them an average of 42% at the end of each  of the past five quarterly periods, the data showed. The banks, which  publicly release debt data each quarter, then boosted the debt levels in  the middle of successive quarters.&#8221; <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830104575172280848939898.html?mod=mktw" rel="nofollow" >Read  Journal report on masked risk levels at banks.</a></p>
<p>Of course, like many Wall Street practices in the era of deregulation,  all of the trades were perfectly legal, just as the &#8220;repo&#8221; accounting  used by Lehman Brothers to hide its leverage exposure was legal &#8212; at  least in the opinion of the U.K. attorneys they could get to approve the  deals.  			<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-your-bank-the-next-lehman-2010-03-30" rel="nofollow" >See  related column on Lehman&#8217;s repo deals.</a></p>
<p>Lehman was hardly alone. Before, during and after the financial crisis,  banks used countless accounting tricks, including off-balance sheet  entities called special purpose vehicles, short-term repurchase  agreements, securities that banks label &#8220;available for sale,&#8221; and all  varieties of &#8220;intent-based accounting.&#8221;</p>
<h3>Research conspiracy</h3>
<p>You would think this kind of window dressing would raise the ire of  analysts whose rosy analysis of Wall Street firms including American  International Group Inc.  					/quotes/comstock/13*!aig/quotes/nls/aig 							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AIG" rel="nofollow" title="American  International Group Inc" >AIG</a> <strong>36.06</strong>, 							+0.49, 							+1.38%) 					 Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch were made  to look foolish by opaque and misleading balance sheets.</p>
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<p>Think again. Most analysts still read the suspect financial data they&#8217;re  handed every three months and take it as gospel.</p>
<p>Take a look at the usual suspects. Since the start of the year, analysts  have issued six ratings upgrades to Citigroup  					/quotes/comstock/13*!c/quotes/nls/c 							(<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/C" rel="nofollow" title="Citigroup  Inc" >C</a> <strong>4.17</strong>, 							+0.06, 							+1.46%) 					, six to Goldman, four to Morgan Stanley and nine to Bank of  America, according to FactSet. Combined, analysts have only issued five  downgrades.</p>
<p>Even some of the best analysts, including Brad Hintz at Bernstein  Research, Meredith Whitney, who runs her own research company and Glenn  Schorr at Deutsche Bank AG seem reluctant to mention the fact that banks  are tweaking the numbers. And why should they? Admitting that a bank  has cut risk for earnings day undermines their &#8220;analysis.&#8221;</p>
<h3>Denials and lies</h3>
<p>Less than a decade ago, a crusading attorney general upended Wall Street  with a series of investigations and settlements concerning practices  that the industry and public took for granted: late trading of mutual  funds, bid-rigging in the insurance market and research conflicts.</p>
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<h3>News Hub: Clouds hover over strong profits</h3>
<p>Corporate profits have been growing fast since late last year  and, despite growing anxieties over European debts and lackluster  spending, they will remain strong in second-quarter reports.</p>
</div>
<p>Regardless of Eliot Spitzer&#8217;s personal failings and his lasting impact  as a reformer, at least he had the gumption to challenge practices on  the grounds of common sense and evenhandedness. Unfortunately, no one  seems to have taken up the mantle of championing fairness in the  markets.</p>
<p>Even after the financial crisis, financial firms still take short cuts  behind the scenes, the analysts keep playing it straight, investors  continue to follow the analysts and credit ratings agencies. Not only  does the emperor have no clothes, no one in the kingdom cares.</p>
<p>Maybe it&#8217;s the obfuscation: like the way a chief financial officer  authoritatively patronizes investors on the earnings call. Or perhaps  it&#8217;s the way banks such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley vehemently deny  they use &#8220;repo&#8221; transactions to make the books look better at the end of  the quarter but are hazy when asked about other transactions.</p>
<p>Maybe it doesn&#8217;t matter anyway. All of this stuff, we&#8217;re told, is legal.  And if the SEC does make a move, it&#8217;s only going to require more  disclosure of mid-quarter activities.</p>
<p>Maybe lie is too strong a word for the game big finance plays at the end  of the quarter. It is, after all, trickery played inside the lines.</p>
<p>But here&#8217;s something you should refuse to call it: the truth.</p>
<p>David Weidner covers Wall Street for  MarketWatch.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500: Below 200 Day Average, Death Cross Continues</title>
		<link>http://www.themarketfinancial.com/sp-500-below-200-day-average-death-cross-continues/10689?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=sp-500-below-200-day-average-death-cross-continues</link>
		<comments>http://www.themarketfinancial.com/sp-500-below-200-day-average-death-cross-continues/10689#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Jul 2010 20:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●Bulls Rally This Week, But Overall Indicators Are Still BearishOverviewSPX has been below the 200 day moving average for 13 consecutive trading days.&#160;The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on Wednesday, June 23 -...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TDiqTN3Ym0I/AAAAAAAAAUk/J2CGGOtTbuY/s1600/Bull.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" rw="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TDiqTN3Ym0I/AAAAAAAAAUk/J2CGGOtTbuY/s320/Bull.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Bulls Rally This Week, But Overall Indicators Are Still Bearish</span></div><br /><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Overview</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">SPX has been below the 200 day moving average for 13 consecutive trading days.&nbsp;The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on Wednesday, June 23 - a Death Cross - and then descended below the 200 day sma on Friday, July 2 -&nbsp;another Death Cross. The SPX continues in both an intermediate-term and long-term bear market despite this week's rally.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The S&amp;P 500, SPX, is up +5.42% for the week, up +4.58% for the month, down -3.33% for the year, and up +59.34% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. In addition, SPX is down -11.45% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Euro, via the Euro/US Dollar price, EURUSD, was steady for the week at +0.59%. The US Dollar Index, USDX, has pulled back from the 2010 YTD high of 88.51 at the Monday, June 7 close to 83.99, down -0.54% for the week. The Euro holding steady at least should keep the SPX somewhat steady and the US Dollar continuing to remain below the YTD highs is bullish for the SPX.&nbsp;The Euro had been the tail wagging the dog, that is, the Euro goes down then the US Dollar Index goes up and the SPX goes down or all of this vice versa. Howevere, now the uncertainty over the viability of the USA economic recovery has become a variable. Suspiciion, uncertainty, and sudden onsets of fear permeate the equity markets.</div><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Economic and Market News</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The IMF issued a partial update of their semi-annual World Economic Outlook which is reviewed <a href="http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspot.com/2010/07/imf-update-global-recovery-continues.html">here</a>. In summary, the IMF sees the world economic recovery continuing. The USA 2010 GDP projections was raised to +3.3% from 3.1%. Conversely, the Blue Chip Indicators survey of economists (just released) lowered the USA 2010 GDP from +3.3% to +3.1% and a 2010 YE unemployment of 9.4% (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6690BE20100710?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(News+/+US+/+Business+News)&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader">Reuters</a>). Therefore,&nbsp;the low +3.0% area seems to be the consensus for the USA 2010 GDP. Peter Morici and others have state that a GDP of +3.0% is about the breakeven point on jobs, that is, GDP needs to exceed +3.0% to create jobs in the USA. Accordingly, based on these projections, continued slow job creation and high unemployment seems to be the "new normal".</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sentiment is "cautiously optimistic" about the global recovery. The IMF is projecting both a global and USA economic recovery slowdown in the second half of 2010. In addition, the IMF is projecting a continuing slowdown globally, including the USA, in 2011. Asia-Pacific is the most robust economic region while there is uncertainty about Europe's sovereign debt, financial system, and economic recovery. USA leading economic indicators are signalling the recovery is slowing down, perhaps even stalling. USA unemployment and underemployment remains high, bank lending continues to contract, housing starts have plunged, durable goods orders are down, and the Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised downwards. Yet USA manufacturing shows some&nbsp;strength and sustainability.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways?</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">We have several major market issues and variables. Overall, I continue to foresee more sideways trading and possible high volatility, with a downside bias until some of this market turmoil settles down. By market turmoil, I mean the EU Crisis primarily and now uncertainty about the strength, even the viability of the USA economic recovery secondarily. Only then will the bottom, and therefore support, be in.&nbsp;Doug Kass stated on July 7 a summer rally has arrived and will continue through earnings season, which starts Monday. Hopefully, he is correct but there are a lot of bears calling the reverse.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Volatility has been high since the VIX put in a bottom in mid-April. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is now at a calmer 24.98 and is down -17.7%&nbsp;for the week.&nbsp;Hopefully this signals&nbsp;the SPX can hold this week's gains, barring more bad news out of Europe or dismal USA economic data.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Major USA Equity Indexes</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ 100, S&amp;P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 have all fallen well below the 2010 YTD highs. The bullish trends are broken. For comparative purposes, the current price status, intermediate-term and long-term trends, dates generated, and the percentage off the 2010 YTD high are:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> Below 200d sma; Bear 5-20-10; Bear June 2010, -11.45%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Russell 2000</strong>&nbsp;Below 200d sma; Bear 5-26-10, Bull July 2010, -15.16%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>NASDAQ Composite</strong> Below 200d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bull July 2010, -13.19%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>NASDAQ 100</strong>&nbsp;Below 200d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bull July 2010, -11.70%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average 30</strong>&nbsp;Below 200d sma; Bear 5-20.10; Bull July 2010, -8.99%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Currencies</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The two key currencies affecting the markets right now:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>US Dollar Index</strong> Below 50d sma; Bull 12-21-09, Bull January 2010</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Euro/US Dollar</strong> Above 50d sma; <em>Bull</em> <em>7-6-10</em>; Bear December 2009</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500: Below 200 Day SMA,&nbsp;Death Cross Continues</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Daily Chart Below</span></strong> is the SPX daily chart for 2010. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below</span></strong><br />Current Close 1077.96 (Yellow horizontal line)<br />2010 YTD High 4-23-10 1217.28<br />2010 YTD Low 7-2-10 1022.58<br />YE 12-31-09 1115.10<br />10 Month EMA 1080.30<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TDirmmDkiBI/AAAAAAAAAUo/_i5C-wBpfDY/s1600/SPXDly070910.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" rw="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TDirmmDkiBI/AAAAAAAAAUo/_i5C-wBpfDY/s640/SPXDly070910.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Intermediate-Term Trend</span></strong> The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bear market for the SPX on Thursday, May 20. That is, the 50d sma is greater than the 25d sma. An intermediate-term bull market had previously been in effect since March 16.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Resistance</span></strong> The current close, the yellow horizontal line, has pulled back dramatically since the April 23 YTD closing high. There are multiple levels of resistance above. The 1100 area, a benchmark and milestone price is the next significant and important resistance. The 200 day simple moving average, about 1111,&nbsp;has proven to be resistance and the SPX has been below for&nbsp;13 consecutive trading days.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The June 18 peak of 1118 is significant. The now distant 1150 area is another significant benchmark resistance. There was a struggle at 1150, and failure to break above, in January 2010. The 1200 area, a benchmark and milestone price, is significant, and still far away, resistance. SPX is now above the February 8&nbsp;dip of 1057 and below the October&nbsp;19 peak of 1098.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Support</span></strong> There are multiple levels of support below. The 200d sma had been support that failed. The 2010 YTD closing low was set on July 2 at 1022.58 is absolutely critical support.&nbsp;The previous 2010 YTD closing lows of 1050.47 and 1056.74 on June 7 and February 8, respectively,&nbsp;are important support. Both of these prices are key benchmarks and psychological prices for support. Based on the volatility of the market, these support prices still are not far below.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Moving Averages</span></strong> SPX has plunged through the 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages and remains below. the 25d sma was regained on Friday, July 9. The 25d sma continues to descend and is below the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is plunging and crossed below the 100d sma on June 23, a Death Cross and below the 200d sma on July 2, another Death Cross.&nbsp;Both the 100d and 200d sma's have leveled off.at least temporarily.&nbsp;SPX dropping below the 200d is disappointing. The 200d sma was last tested in early July 2009, a rally ensued.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Higher Uptrend Line</span></strong> The higher yellow uptrend line, a measure of the rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low of 1056.74 was the bottom of the first 2010 pullback, before this current plunge and new 2010 YTD low. SPX broke through this uptrend line on May 13 and has been below for 40 consecutive trading days. I have left this uptrend line intact to observe whether SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Lower Uptrend Line</span></strong> The lower yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the previous 2010 YTD closing low of 1050.47 set on June 7. SPX broke down through this trendline on June 29. Interestingly, SPX closed at about this trendline on July 9. I have left this uptrend line intact to observe whether SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent. Yet another trendline could be drawn utilizing the new 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.58 on July 2.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Downtrend Line</span></strong> The downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX has remained well below this downtrend line since.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Relative Strength Index (RSI)</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">RSI 14 day = 37.36 is slightly oversold and well above the recent&nbsp;July 6 abysmal&nbsp;low of 10.40</div><div style="text-align: justify;">RSI 28 day = 48.34 is reasonable and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The RSI's&nbsp;are off the lows but indicate&nbsp;plenty of upside potential.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">MACD (12,26,9)</span></strong> The MACD switched to bullish on July 9 at +1.77.&nbsp;MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic!&nbsp;MACD peaked on June 18 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Long-Term Trend</span></strong> The 10 month exponential moving average of 1080.30 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is below this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market has arrived and has regained and lost the indicator several times which indicates uncertainty and lack of trend.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Conclusion</span></strong> Uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery and the Euro Crisis has caused the markets break the bull market trend that began in March 2009, with a downside bias. The intermediate term trend continues bearish and the long term trend is neutral to bearish. The technical indicators such as resistance, support, trendlines, RSIs, and MACD had been pushed to extremes in the last weeks as a result of Fear&nbsp;but are yet again&nbsp;reaching more reasonable levels. The Bears have been in control, but the Bulls had control at least for the past week.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the monthly SPX chart since January 2005. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal line, the current price, plus the yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TDix4aQ2b1I/AAAAAAAAAUs/DGrPZbaa-t4/s1600/SPXMo070910.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" rw="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TDix4aQ2b1I/AAAAAAAAAUs/DGrPZbaa-t4/s640/SPXMo070910.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Disclosure</span></strong><br />We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/MatrixMarkets">Follow</a> <strong><span style="color: #660000;">MatrixMarkets</span></strong> On Twitter!<br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/5565288186605875491-4591922250308972601?l=matrixmarkets.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Backing Trade Thru Charts: Forex</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jul 2010 03:26:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Vincent Jiang</dc:creator>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500: Another Day, Another 2010 Low (Charts)</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jul 2010 02:44:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●Uncertainy, even Fear, about the Viability of the USA &#38; Global Economic RecoveryS&#38;P 500 Scorecard at June 30The first half of 2010 is over. 2010 began with uncertainty about the USA economic recovery but data in Q1 was encouraging. As ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCvyfaX-ocI/AAAAAAAAAUY/mCB17HKXcw8/s1600/MarketCrash1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="280" ru="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCvyfaX-ocI/AAAAAAAAAUY/mCB17HKXcw8/s320/MarketCrash1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Uncertainy, even Fear, about the Viability of the USA &amp; Global Economic Recovery</span></div><br /><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Scorecard at June 30</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The first half of 2010 is over. 2010 began with uncertainty about the USA economic recovery but data in Q1 was encouraging. As the H1 continued, especially in June, the data deteriorated suggesting a slowdown or even stalling of the recovery. The S&amp;P 500, SPX is down -4.28% for the week, down -5.39% for the month, down -7.57% for the year 2010, up +52.35% since the market bottom on March 9, 2009, and down -15.33% from the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28 on April 23.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500, 1040, Support</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday, June 29, the SPX closed just above 1040. Today, June 30, SPX broke down through 1040 to close at 1030.71 which is&nbsp;a new 2010 YTD closing low. The selloff and breakdwon came in the last hour of trading, which is&nbsp; a sign of fear. 1040 was critical support and there is a long history of interaction with the 1040 price. As noted yesterday, the next support&nbsp;was about 1030.98, the August 27, 2009 peak.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">SPX closed today at this support, which is the late August 2009 peaking formation. Next support below now is the 2009 peaking action of 1012.73, 1010.48, and 1005.65 on August 13, 7, and 4, respectively. However,&nbsp;for the market, 1040 was a benchmark price and the next lower key price is 1000. Interaction with 1,000 previously was from early August 2009 through early September 2009.</div><div align="justify"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Wall of Worry Grows Bigger</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">A few more negative economic news today: 1) the ADP USA National Employment Report for May was an anemic and immaterial&nbsp;+13,000 jobs increase for nonfarm private employment, 2) the Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 59.1% from 59.7% in May which means manufacturing growth is increasing at a decreasing rate, 3) Moody's placed Spain's AAA credit rating on downgrade watch (Fitch and S&amp;P have already downgraded Spain from AAA), and 4) housing starts in Japan unexpectedly dropped in May -4.6% YoY.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Add to today's news the list from yesterday: The Conference Board issued a correction and downward revision of China's leading economic index for April plus reported a plunge in USA consumer confidence. Japan reported higher unemployment and a slowing of industrial production. The G20 summit over the weekend offered no realistic solutions for the global economy or the huge sovereign debts of the developed countries. The USA leading economic indicators are declining or flat. The USA Q1 GDP was revised downwards to +2.7% and probably 3.0+% is necessary to generate jobs and reduce the unemployment rate. USA housing starts tanked in May and bank lending is still contracting.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Add the European sovereign debt crisis which creates both EU fiscal and financial system crises on top of all these aforementioned concerns plus Greek national strikes plus concerns about a double-dip recession, even talk of a depression, and you have the S&amp;P 500 at a new YTD low of 1030.71. Investor confidence is ranging from uncertainty to fear.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Now the market waits for both the weekly unemployment claims on Thursday and the monthly June employment report on Friday. The market appears to be pricing in the worst case scenario. The USA economic news recently has been a net negative, that is the negative has outweighed the positive. On top of that any negative news from Europe and Asia magnifies the uncertainty and fear in the USA.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Daily Chart</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the SPX daily chart since August 2009. The chart includes all&nbsp;recent&nbsp;interaction with&nbsp;1040 beginning in late August 2009. The chart also includes&nbsp;the next support, noted above, in early and mid August 2009. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective and a complete history of the SPX interaction with 1040.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart below</span></strong><br />Current Close 1030.71 (Yellow horizontal line)<br />2010 YTD High 4-23-10 1217.28<br />2010 YTD Low 6-30-10 1030.71<br />YE 12-31-09 1115.10<br />10 Month EMA 1080.82<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500: Line in the Sand at 1040 Breaks Down</span></strong></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCv-_vyPB4I/AAAAAAAAAUc/5zdvsduAl6o/s1600/SPXDly063010.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCv-_vyPB4I/AAAAAAAAAUc/5zdvsduAl6o/s640/SPXDly063010.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Higher Uptrend Line</span></strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The higher yellow uptrend line, a measure of the rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low of 1056.74 was the bottom of the <em>first</em> 2010 pullback, before this current plunge and new 2010 YTD lows. SPX broke through this uptrend line on May 13 and has been below for 34 consecutive trading days. I have left this uptrend line intact to observe when SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Lower Uptrend Line</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The lower yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the <em>previous</em> 2010 YTD closing low of 1050.47 set on June 7. SPX subsequently rallied enough to stay above this trendline for 15 trading days, although SPX almost pinned the trendline on June 25, before breaking down through on June 29.</div><div align="justify"><br /></div><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Downtrend Line</span></strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX has remained well below this downtrend line since.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart: The History of 1040</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the monthly SPX chart showing the history of the 1040 price. The S&amp;P 500 first reached, and surpassed, the 1040 price in February 1998. SPX then dropped below in September 1998 only to regain 1040 in October 1998. It would be September 2001 before SPX dropped below 1040 again, regain, and then finally drop below in June 2002 during the Dot Com Bust. In October 2003 SPX regained 1040 until dropping below again in October 2008 during the financial crisis.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In September, October, November 2009 the SPX tested and finally prevailed again above 1040. Now, on June 30, 2010 the S&amp;P 500 is yet again below&nbsp;1040. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal line, the current closing price,&nbsp;plus the yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCv__ZPfTGI/AAAAAAAAAUg/Uns3Sy_7mzw/s1600/SPXMo063010.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCv__ZPfTGI/AAAAAAAAAUg/Uns3Sy_7mzw/s640/SPXMo063010.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Disclosure</span></strong><br />We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/MatrixMarkets">Follow</a> <strong><span style="color: #660000;">MatrixMarkets</span></strong> On Twitter!<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/5565288186605875491-6153780393600505518?l=matrixmarkets.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500: New YTD Low, 1040 Critical Support (Charts)</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jun 2010 04:52:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●Uncertainy, even Fear, about the Viability of the USA &#38; Global Economic RecoveryOverviewThe Wall of Worry has become longer and taller. The Conference Board issued a correction and downward revision of China's leading economic index for Ap...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCrCL-36mAI/AAAAAAAAAUM/o3ZUjq8qNT8/s1600/MarketCrash.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="274" ru="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCrCL-36mAI/AAAAAAAAAUM/o3ZUjq8qNT8/s320/MarketCrash.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Uncertainy, even Fear, about the Viability of the USA &amp; Global Economic Recovery</span></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Overview</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Wall of Worry has become longer and taller. The Conference Board issued a correction and downward revision of China's leading economic index for April plus reported a plunge in USA consumer confidence. Japan reported higher unemployment and a slowing of industrial production. The G20 summit over the weekend offered no realistic solutions for the global economy or the huge sovereign debts of the developed countries. The USA leading economic indicators are declining or flat. The USA Q1 GDP was revised downwards to +2.7% and probably 3.0+% is necessary to generate jobs and reduce the unemployment rate. USA housing starts tanked in May and bank lending is still contracting.<br /><br />Add the European sovereign debt crisis which creates&nbsp;both EU fiscal and&nbsp;financial system crises&nbsp;on top of all these aforementioned concerns plus Greek national strikes plus concerns about a double-dip recession, even talk of a&nbsp;depression, and you have the S&amp;P 500 at a new YTD low of 1041.24. Investor confidence is ranging from uncertainty to fear.<br /><br />Now the market waits for both the weekly unemployment claims on Thursday and the monthly June employment report on Friday. The market appears to be pricing in the worst case scenario. The USA economic news recently has been a net negative, that is the negative has outweighed the positive. On top of that any negative news from Europe and Asia magnifies the uncertainty and fear in the USA.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>S&amp;P 500 and 1040</strong><br />The SPX closed on June 29 just above 1040. This is critical support and there is a long history of interaction with this price. Below is support at about 1030.98, the August 27, 2009 peak. But for the market, 1040 is a benchmark price and the next lower key price is 1000. Interaction with 1,000 was from early August 2009 through early September 2009.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>S&amp;P 500 Daily Chart</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the SPX daily chart since the first recent test of 1040 beginning in late August 2009. A <em>monthly</em> <em>chart</em> is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective and a complete history of the SPX interaction with 1040.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart below:</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Critical Support 1040.00 (Yellow horizontal line)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Current Close 1041.24</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2010 YTD High 4-23-10 1217.28</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2010 YTD Low 6-29-10 1041.24</div><div style="text-align: justify;">YE 12-31-09 1115.10</div><div style="text-align: justify;">10 Month EMA 1082.73</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500: Line in the Sand at 1040</span></strong></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCrDf5RpDLI/AAAAAAAAAUQ/P7Wg243ROK8/s1600/SPXDly062910.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCrDf5RpDLI/AAAAAAAAAUQ/P7Wg243ROK8/s640/SPXDly062910.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Higher Uptrend Line</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The higher yellow uptrend line, a measure of the rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low of 1056.74 was the bottom of the <em>first</em> 2010 pullback, before this current plunge and <em>new</em> 2010 YTD low. SPX broke through this uptrend line on May 13 and has been below for 33 consecutive trading days. I have left this uptrend line intact to observe when SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Lower Uptrend Line</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The lower yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the&nbsp;<em>previous</em> 2010 YTD closing low of 1050.47 set on June 7. SPX subsequently rallied enough to stay above this trendline for 15 trading days, although SPX almost pinned the trendline on June 25, before breaking down through on June 29.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Downtrend Line</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX has remained well below this downtrend line since.</div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart: The History of 1040</span></strong></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the monthly SPX chart showing the history of the 1040 price. The S&amp;P 500 first reached, and surpassed, the 1040 price in February 1998.&nbsp;SPX then dropped below in September 1998 only to regain 1040 in October 1998. It would be September 2001 before SPX dropped below 1040 again, regain, and then drop below in June 2002 during the Dot Com Bust. In October&nbsp;2003 SPX regained 1040 until the dropping below again in October 2008 during the financial crisis. In September, October, November 2009 the SPX tested and finally prevailed again above 1040. Now, on June 29, 2010 the S&amp;P 500 is yet again hoverinig just above 1040. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal line, the 1040 price, plus the yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCrFOXzc1xI/AAAAAAAAAUU/RBk6-9nDXOc/s1600/SPXMo062910.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCrFOXzc1xI/AAAAAAAAAUU/RBk6-9nDXOc/s640/SPXMo062910.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><strong>Disclosure</strong><br />We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/MatrixMarkets">Follow</a> <strong><span style="color: #660000;">MatrixMarkets</span></strong> On Twitter!<br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/5565288186605875491-1211558701518470642?l=matrixmarkets.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500: Back Below the 200 Day Average, Death Cross Arrives</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jun 2010 22:49:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●New York Stock ExchangeOverviewSPX has been below the 200 day moving average for 4 consecutive days and the 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on Wednesday, June 23 - a Death Cross. The S&#38;P 500, SPX, is down -3.65...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCe07-lzgfI/AAAAAAAAAUA/S-bfuenSb8w/s1600/NYSE1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" ru="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCe07-lzgfI/AAAAAAAAAUA/S-bfuenSb8w/s320/NYSE1.jpg" width="277" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">New York Stock Exchange</span></div><br /><br /><strong>Overview</strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">SPX has been below the 200 day moving average for 4 consecutive days and the 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on Wednesday, June 23 - a Death Cross. The S&amp;P 500, SPX, is down -3.65% for the week, down -1.16% for the month, down&nbsp;-3.44% for the year, and up +59.16% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. In addition, SPX is down -11.54% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. The Euro, via the Euro/US Dollar price, EURUSD, was steady for the week at -0.10%. The US Dollar Index, USDX, has pulled back from the 2010 YTD high of 88.51 at the Monday, June 7 close to 85.28.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Euro holding steady at least should keep the&nbsp;SPX somewhat steady. Some disappointing USA economic data, such as the May durable goods orders, continued high weekly jobless claims, dismal housing starts in May, and the May jobs report, perpetuates the uncertainty as to the viability of the USA economic recovery. On top of this add the EU Crisis and suspicion about the fairness of the markets (Flash Crash May 6). These factors have created a bearish combination. The Euro had been the tail wagging the dog, that is, the Euro goes down then the US Dollar Index goes up and the SPX goes down or all of this vice versa. Howevere, now the uncertainty over the USA economic recovery has become a variable. Suspiciion, uncertainty, and sudden onsets of fear permeate the equity markets.</div><br /><strong>Economic and Market News</strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A review and weekly update of USA and World market and economic news and fundamental analysis is </span><a href="http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspot.com/2010/06/economic-market-news-is-usa-recovery.html"><span style="font-family: inherit;">here</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">.&nbsp;Sentiment is "cautiously optimistic" about the global recovery. Asia-Pacific is the most robust economic region while there is uncertainty about Europe's sovereign debt, financial system, and economic recovery. USA leading economic indicators are signalling the recovery is slowing down, perhaps even stalling. USA unemployment and underemployment remains high, bank lending continues to contract, housing starts have plunged, durable goods orders are down, and the Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised downwards. Yet USA manufacturing shows surprising strength and sustainability.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways?</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We have several major market issues and variables. Overall, I continue to foresee more sideways trading and possible high volatility, with a downside bias until some of this market turmoil settles down. By market turmoil, I mean the EU Crisis primarily and now uncertainty about the strength, even the viability of the USA economic recovery secondarily. Only then will the bottom, and therefore support, be in. Commentary on the major market issues are <a href="http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspot.com/2010/06/economic-market-news-is-usa-recovery.html">here</a>.&nbsp;Volatility has been high since the VIX put in a bottom in mid-April. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is now at a&nbsp;calmer 28.53, but this is still up +19% for the week.&nbsp;However, hopefully this signals no huge SPX drops, barring more bad news out of Europe or dismal USA economic data.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong>Major USA Equity Indexes</strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ 100, S&amp;P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 have all fallen below the 2010 YTD highs. The bullish trends are broken. For comparative purposes, the current price status, intermediate-term and long-term trends, dates generated, and the percentage off the 2010 YTD high are:</div>S&amp;P 500 Below 200d sma; Bear 5-20-10; Bear June 2010, -11.54%<br />Russell 2000 Above 100d sma; Bear 5-26-10, Bull July 2009, -13.05%<br />NASDAQ Composite Below 200d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bull May 2009, -12.12%<br />NASDAQ 100 Above 200d sma (barely); Bear 5-21-10; Bull April 2009, -10.55%<br />Dow Jones Industrial Average Below 200d sma; Bear 5-20.10; Bear June 2010, -9.47%<br />Currencies The two key currencies affecting the markets right now:<br />US Dollar Index Below 25d sma; Bull 12-21-09, Bull January 2010<br />Euro/US Dollar Above 25d sma; Bear 12-15-09; Bear December 2009<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500: Back Below 200 Day SMA, a Death Cross Arrives</span></strong></div><br />S&amp;P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart for 2010. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.<br /><br />Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart below:<br />Current Close 1076.76 (Yellow horizontal line)<br />2010 YTD High 4-23-10 1217.28<br />2010 YTD Low 6-7-10 1050.47<br />YE 12-31-09 1115.10<br />10 Month EMA 1089.19<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCe19yibpxI/AAAAAAAAAUE/nLP_CQujCeo/s1600/SPXDly062510.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCe19yibpxI/AAAAAAAAAUE/nLP_CQujCeo/s640/SPXDly062510.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Intermediate-Term Trend</strong> The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bear market for the SPX on Thursday, May 20. That is, the 50d sma is greater than the 25d sma. An intermediate-term bull market had previously been in effect since March 16.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Resistance</strong> The current close, the yellow horizontal line, has pulled back dramatically since the April 23 YTD closing high. There are multiple levels of resistance above. The 200 day simple moving average has proven to be resistance and the SPX has been below for&nbsp;4 consecutive trading days. This was after staying above for 5 days, and previously below&nbsp;for 17 consecutive trading days. The 1100 area, a benchmark and milestone price is resistance.&nbsp;The now distant 1150 area is the next significant benchmark resistance. There was a struggle at 1150, and failure to break above, in January 2010. The 1200 area, a benchmark and milestone price, is significant, and still far away, resistance. SPX is now just above the&nbsp;September 2009 peaking action.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Support</strong> There are multiple levels of support below. The 200d sma had been support that failed.&nbsp;The 2010 YTD closing low was set on June 7 at 1050.47 is absolutely critical support.&nbsp;The new YTD closing low on June 7 broke through the previous YTD closing low of 1056.74 on February 8. Both of these prices are key benchmarks and psychological prices for support.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Moving Averages</strong> SPX has recently plunged through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages and remains below.&nbsp;The 25d sma continues to descend&nbsp;and is below the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is plunging and crossed below the 100d sma on June 23, a Death Cross. The 50d is now descending towards the 200d.&nbsp;The 100d sma has leveled off.and the the 200d sma is beginning to ascend. SPX dropping below the 200d is disappointing.&nbsp;The 200d sma was last tested in early July 2009, a rally ensued.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Higher Uptrend Line</strong> The higher yellow uptrend line, a measure of the rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low of 1056.74 was the bottom of the <em>first</em> 2010 pullback, before this current plunge and new 2010 YTD low. SPX broke through this uptrend line on May 13 and has been below for 31 consecutive trading days. I have left this uptrend line intact to observe when SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Lower Uptrend Line</strong> The lower yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the <em>new</em> 2010 YTD closing low of 1050.47 set on June 7. SPX subsequently rallied enough to stay above this trendline for the last 14 trading days, although SPX almost pinned the trendline on June 25..</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Downtrend Line</strong> The downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX has remained well below this downtrend line since.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong>Relative Strength Index (RSI)</strong><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">RSI 14 day = 59.98 is reasonable and well above the recent May 7 low of 28.96</div><div style="text-align: justify;">RSI 28 day = 42.20&nbsp;is leaning oversold and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The RSI 14 day is reasonable while the 28 day is leaning oversold, indicating plenty of upside potential.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>MACD (12,26,9)</strong> The MACD switched to bullish on June 10, but is now downtrending.&nbsp;MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic! MACD had been flipping back and forth around the 0.00 (neutral) line, indicating the uncertainty in the markets. MACD peaked on June 18 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Long-Term Trend</strong> The 10 month exponential moving average of 1089.19 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is now below&nbsp;this signal, after briefly regaining the 10m ema last week.&nbsp;SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market has arrived.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Conclusion</strong> Uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery and the Euro Crisis has caused the markets to remain in turmoil with a downside bias. The intermediate term trend continues bearish and the long term trend is now signalling bearish.&nbsp;The technical indicators such as resistance, support, trendlines, RSIs, and MACD had been pushed to extremes in the last weeks as a result of Fear but are now reaching more reasonable levels. The Bears have been in control, but the Bulls continue to have at least&nbsp;a glimmer of hope as the Euro has rallied and remains steady.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart</span></strong></div><br />Below is the monthly SPX chart since January 2005. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal line, the current price, plus the yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCe2vx0VY8I/AAAAAAAAAUI/rTo-sAAIyGA/s1600/SPXDly062510.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TCe2vx0VY8I/AAAAAAAAAUI/rTo-sAAIyGA/s640/SPXDly062510.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><strong>Disclosure</strong><br />We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/MatrixMarkets">Follow</a> <strong><span style="color: #660000;">MatrixMarkets</span></strong> On Twitter!<br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #660000;">●●●</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/5565288186605875491-1055479376744519538?l=matrixmarkets.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500 Still Testing 200 Day Average (Chart)</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 00:11:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●SPX closed at 1113.20 today, just above the 200 day simple moving average of 1110.77. This was after gapping up at the opening to an intraday high of 1131.23, presumably on the news that China was the&#160;yuan currency peg. The&#160;Yuan Rall...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #990000;">●●●</span></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">SPX closed at 1113.20 today, just above the 200 day simple moving average of 1110.77. This was after gapping up at the opening to an intraday high of 1131.23, presumably on the news that China was the&nbsp;yuan currency peg. The&nbsp;Yuan Rally thereupon fizzled throughout the day.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">By the last hour of trading SPX pinned downwards through the 200d sma to 1108.24, but did manage to rally above by&nbsp;the close. The 200d sma&nbsp;has become critical support, after previously being resistance. SPX has pinned downwards through the 200d sma three out of the last four trading days, but managed to close above for five consecutive days now. Hopefully this 200d sma support is not tenuous.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is the recent SPX price interaction with the 200d sma, beginning with the Flash Crash on May 6. The 200d sma is the green line. The current close is the yellow horizontal line. Before the Flash Crash, the last time the SPX had been near the 200d sma was on July 13, 2009. SPX broke out above and&nbsp;a strong rally ensued through early August.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As can be seen on the daily chart below, SPX is still above the 25d sma, but below the 100d sma. The early gap up this morning did not quite reach the 100d sma, which is now at 1133.44. The 50d sma is just above the 100d sma at 1137.53.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB_-F4B8PnI/AAAAAAAAAT8/hHG1jrNPQok/s1600/SPXDly062110.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" ru="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB_-F4B8PnI/AAAAAAAAAT8/hHG1jrNPQok/s640/SPXDly062110.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/MatrixMarkets">Follow</a> Matrix Markets on Twitter!<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #990000;">●●●</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/5565288186605875491-6237527282655138732?l=matrixmarkets.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>S&amp;P 500: Holds Above 200 Day Average!</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Jun 2010 17:58:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Staff and Wire Reports</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[●●●New York Stock ExchangeOverviewThe S&#38;P 500, SPX, is up +2.37% for the week, up +2.58% for the month,&#160;now up +0.22% for the year, and up +65.18% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. In &#160;addition, SPX is down -8.22% from the Apri...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">●●●</span></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB5D4yjNGTI/AAAAAAAAATw/Z9pnVCEBf3s/s1600/NYSE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB5D4yjNGTI/AAAAAAAAATw/Z9pnVCEBf3s/s320/NYSE.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">New York Stoc</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">k Exchange</span></span></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Overview</strong></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The S&amp;P 500, SPX, is up +2.37% for the week, up +2.58% for the month,&nbsp;now <i>up </i>+0.22% for the year, and up +65.18% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. In &nbsp;addition, SPX is down -8.22% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. &nbsp;The Euro, via the Euro/US Dollar price, EURUSD, rallied again this week to a surprising Friday, June 18 close of 1.23862. This has resulted in the US Dollar Index, USDX, pulling back from the 2010 YTD high of 88.51 at the Monday, June 7 close. &nbsp;The bulls have bounced back and the rally may likely continue if no further sovereign debt crisis news comes out of Europe, which would kill the Euro rally and push the SPX downwards again.</div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The Euro rally is bullish for the SPX. Some disappointing USA economic data, such as the May jobs report, &nbsp;perpetuates the uncertainty as to the viability of the USA economic recovery. On top of this add the EU Crisis and suspicion about the fairness of the markets (Flash Crash May 6). &nbsp;These factors have created a bearish combination. Lately the Euro has been the tail wagging the dog, that is, the Euro goes down then the US Dollar Index goes up and the SPX goes down or all of this vice versa. &nbsp;As a result, technical and fundamental analysis has been difficult as one crisis news release out of Europe is immediately reacted upon by the equity markets. Suspicion, uncertainty, and sudden onsets of fear permeate the equity markets.</div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Economic and Market News</b></span></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">A review and weekly update of USA and World market and economic news and fundamental analysis is in the previous&nbsp;<a href="http://matrixmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/06/economic-market-news-fears-about-europe.html">post</a>. Overall, the USA and global economic data remains&nbsp;<i>cautiously optimistic </i>and fears about Europe have eased some.</span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways?</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;">We have several major market issues and variables.&nbsp; Overall, I continue to foresee more sideways trading and high volatility, with a downside bias until some of this market turmoil settles down. &nbsp;By market&nbsp;turmoil, I mean the EU Crisis primarily and now uncertainty about the strength, even the viability of the USA economic recovery secondarily. &nbsp;Only then will the bottom, and therefore support, be in. Commentary on the major market issues are in the previous&nbsp;<a href="http://matrixmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/06/economic-market-news-fears-about-europe.html">post</a>.&nbsp;Volatility has been high since the VIX put in a bottom in mid-April. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. &nbsp;VIX is now at a much, much calmer 23.95, which is well below the recent extremes, and hopefully signals no huge SPX drops, barring more bad news out of Europe.</span></strong></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><strong><br /></strong></span></strong></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><strong>Major USA Equity Indexes</strong>&nbsp;The Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ 100, S&amp;P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 have all fallen below the 2010 YTD highs, of course. &nbsp;The bullish trends are broken. &nbsp;For comparative purposes, the current price status, intermediate-term and long-term trends, date generated, and the percentage off the 2010 YTD high are:</span></strong></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;Above 200d sma; Bear 5-20-10; bull June 2010, -8.20%</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Russell 2000</b>&nbsp;Above 100d sma (barely); Bear 5-26-10, Bull July 2009, -10.11%</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>NASDAQ Composite</b>&nbsp;Above 200d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bull May 2009, -8.71%</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>NASDAQ 100</b>&nbsp;Above 100d sma; Bear 5-21-10; Bull April 2009, -6.90%</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;Above 200d sma; Bear 5-20.10; Bull June 2010, -6.73%</div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Currencies&nbsp;</b>The two key currencies affecting the markets right now:</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>US Dollar Index</b>&nbsp;<i>Below </i>25d sma; Bull 12-21-09, Bull January 2010</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Euro/US Dollar</b>&nbsp;<i>Above </i>25d sma; Bear 12-15-09; Bear December 2009</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">S&amp;P 500: Holding Above the 200 Day Average!</span></strong></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">S&amp;P 500 Daily Chart Below</span></strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">&nbsp;is the SPX daily chart for 2010. &nbsp;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">A&nbsp;monthly&nbsp;chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.</span></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart below:</strong></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Current Close 1117.51 (Yellow horizontal line)</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">2010 YTD High 4-23-10 1217.28</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">YE 12-31-09 1115.10</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">10 Month EMA 1096.60</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB5PBk8fg2I/AAAAAAAAAT0/LEweW5RDztA/s1600/SPXDly061810.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB5PBk8fg2I/AAAAAAAAAT0/LEweW5RDztA/s640/SPXDly061810.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center;"></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Intermediate-Term Trend</strong>&nbsp;The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages,&nbsp;signaled&nbsp;a&nbsp;<i>bear&nbsp;</i>market for the SPX on Thursday, May 20. &nbsp;That is, the 50d sma is greater than the 25d sma. An intermediate-term bull market had previously been in effect since March 16.</div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Resistance</strong>&nbsp;The current close, the yellow horizontal line, has pulled back dramatically since the April 23 YTD closing high.&nbsp; There are multiple levels of resistance above. &nbsp;The 200 day simple moving average had proven to be resistance, but SPX regained on June 15 and has stayed above for four consecutive trading days. This was after staying below for&nbsp;<i>seventeen&nbsp;</i>consecutive trading days. &nbsp;The 1100 area, a benchmark and milestone price has also been regained on June 15. The 1150 area is the next significant benchmark resistance. There was a struggle at 1150, and failure to break above, in January 2010. The 1200 area, a benchmark and milestone price, is&nbsp;significant, and still far away, resistance. SPX has risen above the October 2009 peaks and sideways trading range of November and December 2009.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Support</strong>&nbsp;There are multiple levels of support below. The 200d sma is now the most closely watched support, currently at 1110.18. Buyers have stepped in and support has been found after the 2010 YTD closing low was set on June 7 at 1050.47, which indicates that both 1000 and 1050 are strong support. The new YTD closing low on June 7 broke through the previous YTD closing low of 1056.74 on February 8. Both of these prices are key benchmarks and psychological prices for support.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Moving Averages</strong>&nbsp;SPX has recently plunged through the&nbsp;25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages, but now has regained the 25d and 200d sma's. The 25d sma continues to plunge sharply and is below the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. &nbsp;The 50d sma decreasing but has so far&nbsp;remained above the&nbsp;100d and 200d sma's. &nbsp;The 100d sma has leveled off.and the the 200d sma is beginning to ascend. Regaining the 200d is encouraging. The 200d sma was last tested in early July 2009, a rally ensued.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Higher Uptrend Line</strong>&nbsp;The higher yellow uptrend line, a measure of the rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low of 1056.74 was the bottom of the&nbsp;<i>first&nbsp;</i>2010 pullback, before this current plunge and new 2010 YTD low. SPX broke through this uptrend line on May 13 and has been below for 26 consecutive trading days. &nbsp;I have left this uptrend line intact to observe when SPX can ultimately regain this previous rate of price ascent.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Lower Uptrend Line</b>&nbsp;The lower yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the <i>new </i>2010 YTD closing low of 1050.47 set on June 7. SPX subsequently rallied enough to stay above this trendline for the last 9 trading days.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Downtrend Line</strong>&nbsp;The downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX has remained well&nbsp;below this downtrend&nbsp;line since.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Relative Strength Index (RSI)</strong></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">RSI 14 day = 57.47 is reasonable and well above the recent May 7 low of 28.96</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">RSI 28 day = 44.67 is leaning oversold and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The RSI 14 day is reasonable while the 28 day is leaning oversold, indicating plenty of upside potential.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>MACD (12,26,9)</strong>&nbsp;The MACD switched to bullish on June 10 and has uptrended sharply. MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic!&nbsp; MACD had been flipping back and forth around the 0.00 (neutral) line, indicating the uncertainty in the markets. MACD is now at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009!</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Long-Term Trend</span></strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">&nbsp;The 10 month exponential moving average of 1096.60 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX has now regained this signal and can hopefully continue above. SPX dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market has arrived. If SPX can hold above the 10m ema, this would continue to signal a bull market has begun and is sustained.</span></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Conclusion</strong>&nbsp;Uncertainty over the continuation of &nbsp;the USA economic recovery and the Euro Crisis has caused the markets to remain in turmoil with a downside bias.&nbsp; The intermediate term trend continues bearish but the long term trend is now signalling bullish. &nbsp;The technical indicators such as resistance, support, trendlines, RSIs, and MACD had been pushed to extremes as a result of Fear but are now reaching more reasonable levels. &nbsp;The Bears have been in control, but the Bulls at least now have a glimmer of hope as the Euro has rallied.</div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart</span></b></span></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Below is the monthly SPX chart since January 2005. &nbsp;The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above.&nbsp;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal line, the current price, plus the yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above.&nbsp;The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart.</span></span></div></div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center;"></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center;"></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB5Uvl5xiuI/AAAAAAAAAT4/HPa3jO0eKbg/s1600/SPXMo061810.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="422" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dqV6cPG_Lt0/TB5Uvl5xiuI/AAAAAAAAAT4/HPa3jO0eKbg/s640/SPXMo061810.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong><br /></strong></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong>Disclosure</strong>&nbsp;We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #cc0000;"><b></b></span></div><b><div style="color: black; font-weight: normal; text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><div style="color: black; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><div style="display: inline !important; text-align: justify;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; 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