The Market Financial » International Markets http://www.themarketfinancial.com Taking the Risk out of Risk Sat, 22 Oct 2011 21:39:24 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= VIX Sonar Report: Settlement and Long Gamma (VXX) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/vix-sonar-report-settlement-and-long-gamma-vxx/123183?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=vix-sonar-report-settlement-and-long-gamma-vxx http://www.themarketfinancial.com/vix-sonar-report-settlement-and-long-gamma-vxx/123183#comments Wed, 19 Jan 2011 17:26:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

via @optionmonster



]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/vix-sonar-report-settlement-and-long-gamma-vxx/123183/feed 0 Ivory Coast Tension: Update On Cocoa Crisis (HSY) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/ivory-coast-tension-update-on-cocoa-crisis-hsy/122819?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ivory-coast-tension-update-on-cocoa-crisis-hsy http://www.themarketfinancial.com/ivory-coast-tension-update-on-cocoa-crisis-hsy/122819#comments Wed, 19 Jan 2011 05:29:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

15 in COCOA futures

I posted back on December 26 of last year about the political and economic crisis/civil going down on in the Ivory coast. This crisis between a leader who will not concede loss and the officially elected leader has caused the price of cocoa to rise and jeopardizes the cocoa trade within the county.

The Ivory coast region produces some 40% of the worlds supply of cocoa. As of right now the tensions are still not resolved and are escalating.

(Bloomberg writes)”Ivory Coast’s post-election crisis is having a “catastrophic” effect on the West African nation’s economy, said President-elect Alassane Ouattara, who warned of food shortages and called for “legitimate force” to oust his rival Laurent Gbagbo.


“It’s clear that the GDP is going to decrease, exports are going to slow down, and imports as well,” Ouattara said in an interview in Abidjan, the commercial capital, yesterday. “How about the local foodstuffs sector? If this continues we are going to have shortages.”

Cocoa prices are sure to rise as the tension escalates.. buy up your beans….

(VOA writes)  Non president  Gbagbo…”Financially, Mr. Gbagbo has pushed cocoa businessmen to pay advances on export taxes, as part of efforts to keep paying civil servants and southern security forces, a monthly tab evaluated at up to $100 million. 


Mr. Ouattara, who is holed up in a hotel in the main southern city Abidjan, has warned any payments made to Mr. Gbagbo will have to be paid back to his own government.  

Ivory Coast also owes money, but Mr. Gbagbo’s side says since it is not recognized, it has stopped paying interest payments due on existing government bonds.”

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/ivory-coast-tension-update-on-cocoa-crisis-hsy/122819/feed 0 It is Apparent The Market Survives On Bolivian Marching Powder (SPY) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/it-is-apparent-the-market-survives-on-bolivian-marching-powder-spy/122820?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=it-is-apparent-the-market-survives-on-bolivian-marching-powder-spy http://www.themarketfinancial.com/it-is-apparent-the-market-survives-on-bolivian-marching-powder-spy/122820#comments Wed, 19 Jan 2011 03:31:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

Nasdaq futures 1 min . not the march

Yeah i said it. Today was a very good example of BOTFD, you should all know what it stands for…. Buy The …. Dip. The Bolivian marching powder was apparently strong this morning….

Anyway, of course Apple beat this after noon, and IBM beat as well and of course the nasdaq melted up all day day put in day highs all afternoon going eventually going green erasing the Steve Jobs’ health issue like it never happened. The Nasdaq put in year highs of 2346.50 after hours.. never intra day, that is no fun….

Apple’s stock managed to close a bit lower, though per my pervious post last night on the “ultimate circuit breaker“, highlighted apple would most likely end up nearly flat on the day after they blow out EPS.. apple is pegged at 345ish after hours.. she closed 248ish Friday. Not a bad move 326 to 344… my trade on the Economic burn pretty much sums that up… as for the numbers here they are
CRAPPLE Q1 EPS

Apple reported Q1 EPS $6.43 vs. consensus $5.38

Reported Q1 revenue $26.74B vs. consensus $24.38B

Apple sees Q2 EPS about $4.90 vs. consensus $4.43 

Sees Q2 revenue about $22B vs. consensus $20.62B

Apple sold 16.24M iPhones in Q1, up 86% vs. last year

though

Apple sold 19.45M iPods during Q1, down 7% vs. last year

Apple CEO Steve Jobs said, “We are firing on all cylinders and we’ve got some exciting things in the pipeline for this year including iPhone 4 on Verizon which customers can’t wait to get their hands on.”

IBM Q4 EPS is as follows

IBM reported Q4 EPS $4.18 vs. consensus $4.08

Reported Q4 revenue $29B vs. consensus $28.26B

IBM reports year end services backlog $142B via conference call

IBM targets operating EPS of $20 in 2015

IBM Management stated, “We would expect to have mid-single-digit growth in our services business profitability.” 

As you can see when we are in a credit bull market, the big caps can do no wrong.. If they cannot mint money then there is something seriously wrong with their management and business model. 
Remember Bolivian marching powder is only good for so long until you get the hang over and the party ends and your searching for more “performance enhancers” cough pomo, quantitative easing cough……. then crash… 

Tomorrows calendar 

Jan 1908:30Housing StartsDec565K         550K     555K
Jan 1908:30Building PermitsDec540K560K    544K    530Kvia
Briefing.com

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/it-is-apparent-the-market-survives-on-bolivian-marching-powder-spy/122820/feed 0 Spot Gold Going To 1376 & Beyond Soon? (GLD) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/spot-gold-going-to-1376-beyond-soon-gld/122821?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=spot-gold-going-to-1376-beyond-soon-gld http://www.themarketfinancial.com/spot-gold-going-to-1376-beyond-soon-gld/122821#comments Wed, 19 Jan 2011 02:23:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

Quick chart below of the GC_F.. IF the ascending triangle on the 1 min continues higher as the dollar breaks down to lows of the session & the euro bids we will more than likely see equity futures bring up the rear..

spot gold futures 1 min

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/spot-gold-going-to-1376-beyond-soon-gld/122821/feed 0 Tonights Gold/Euro/Dollar/ES Correlation Update (SP&) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/tonights-goldeurodollares-correlation-update-sp/122822?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tonights-goldeurodollares-correlation-update-sp http://www.themarketfinancial.com/tonights-goldeurodollares-correlation-update-sp/122822#comments Wed, 19 Jan 2011 01:23:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

Looks like the the index’s still have fires under their asses… Gold bid, dollar not bit, euro bid nasdaq and ES_F are levitating on AAPL and IBM .. though CREE was not a boost to the Q’s.. We all know the LED market can only get so big, they are used in just about every laptop, tv etc etc now a days.

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/tonights-goldeurodollares-correlation-update-sp/122822/feed 0 Live From The Floor, Apple & The Ultra Marathon (SPY) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/live-from-the-floor-apple-the-ultra-marathon-spy/122734?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=live-from-the-floor-apple-the-ultra-marathon-spy http://www.themarketfinancial.com/live-from-the-floor-apple-the-ultra-marathon-spy/122734#comments Tue, 18 Jan 2011 20:27:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

via @theCMZ



]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/live-from-the-floor-apple-the-ultra-marathon-spy/122734/feed 0 My Thoughts on Twitter/Trading & Adaptation (SPY) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122737?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122737#comments Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:14:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly


Hopper
I have been a part of the community observing, absorbing, and learning the ins and outs of collective human thought across the twitter medium for a number of years. Over this period of time I have honed my skill at discerning the “noise” from the real nuggets of actionable information which lead me to the “special” stocks of the day. These “special” stocks happen to be the ones which are in play but may not be on the mainstream media radar.
People/investors ask me if there is some sort of quantifiable formula behind my strategy of utilizing all that twitter brings us traders….. I always say there is a system which I follow in regards to pre determined loss and profit goals though the other half of the trade is based on feel and as queer as it sounds its an art. There is an art to understanding human thought process as a whole presented within the twitter medium. I can sit at a laptop and watch tweets, charts, news and then decide with greater than 59% accuracy which way the stocks will move and I use options to play the move.
Lets talk efficient market theory in relation to real time information flow mediums such as twitter for a quick second.. Everyone on twitter  has access to the same information… True to a point….they do have access to the information…… but do users know how to efficiently interpret the information and derive a signal from the information? Doubtful, though i do. 
The online twitter community is though to be a collective of rational individuals who are making
RATIONAL decisions regarding their own personal investments… Eh all true…a little proof 50cents recent tweets.. There was no rationalization for most of the buyers of the stock, just the hype and excitement of buying a stock sucked them in and hopes of rich’s.
Twitter and blogging has drastically increased the speed at which information flows and the the reach of this information is vast.. A great example of increased speed of information in flow in trading which older traders know a bit about, is  …. Dan Dorfman … He was basically one of the first journalists to really use the medium of television to disseminate market information to the masses…(yes I know he was jailed for some dumb things he did etc etc but hear me out)… social media/blogging is the new medium today…. 
I guess you are all wondering what would happens with stocks Dorfman would speak about on cnn & early cnbc etc if are not familiar? They would MOVE and run the heck over market makers on the floor because they had no idea in heck why these stocks were moving. Floor traders called it getting “dorfed”…. Now you wonder why there are televisions all over the floor of exchanges…. it was for this very reason…… traders needed to see who and what was being spoken about on television. If traders saw him speaking or anyone for that matter about a stock they were making a market in the traders could hedge themselves and or get out of the way to not get run over… At the time television was the NEW THING…not all hedge funders and PM’s watched TV…. Now EVERYONE DOES….…Now for the parallel….
…..Now you have twitter, blogging etc… If you trade without these mediums in front of you displaying information you might get modern day “dorfed” because twitter/blogs could be alive with all the reasons why the stock your long is shitting all over itself and you cant find out any information on the catalyst for the move via mainstream readily available sources…. 
I believe the great majority of day/fundamental/swing etc traders in the world are still not fully aware of twitter/blogging about trading trends and happenings helps one join a school of fish navigating the markets as if the old trading floors are alive again in regards to information and idea flow…… As for the skeptics of twitter/blogging i feel they are much like those who doubted dorfman’s ability to move stocks via television….a shift is among us… To the new medium of information exchange and dissemination… 
My incorporation of twitter/blogging into my trading plan is a dovetail theory of efficient market theory…. I have access to a great deal of publicly available information PLUS I use & exploit(profit) from the human screener…. A massive school of fish sharing links/ ideas and “trades.. … Hedge funders and PM’s maybe slow to adopt twitter and monitor the flow of tweets through different verticals (organized tweets by topic) but I think they all soon will because collective thought can create momentum in either direction. I am sure a lot of funds are using key word recognition software which quantify’s sentiment etc though what I do is more of feel and scenario recognition from learned via trial and error. I apply a technical approach to trading learned over the years pre twitter to the modern market with much success.

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122737/feed 0 My Thoughts on Twitter/Trading & Adaptation (SPY) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122738?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122738#comments Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:14:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly


Hopper
I have been a part of the community observing, absorbing, and learning the ins and outs of collective human thought across the twitter medium for a number of years. Over this period of time I have honed my skill at discerning the “noise” from the real nuggets of actionable information which lead me to the “special” stocks of the day. These “special” stocks happen to be the ones which are in play but may not be on the mainstream media radar.
People/investors ask me if there is some sort of quantifiable formula behind my strategy of utilizing all that twitter brings us traders….. I always say there is a system which I follow in regards to pre determined loss and profit goals though the other half of the trade is based on feel and as queer as it sounds its an art. There is an art to understanding human thought process as a whole presented within the twitter medium. I can sit at a laptop and watch tweets, charts, news and then decide with greater than 59% accuracy which way the stocks will move and I use options to play the move.
Lets talk efficient market theory in relation to real time information flow mediums such as twitter for a quick second.. Everyone on twitter  has access to the same information… True to a point….they do have access to the information…… but do users know how to efficiently interpret the information and derive a signal from the information? Doubtful, though i do. 
The online twitter community is though to be a collective of rational individuals who are making
RATIONAL decisions regarding their own personal investments… Eh all true…a little proof 50cents recent tweets.. There was no rationalization for most of the buyers of the stock, just the hype and excitement of buying a stock sucked them in and hopes of rich’s.
Twitter and blogging has drastically increased the speed at which information flows and the the reach of this information is vast.. A great example of increased speed of information in flow in trading which older traders know a bit about, is  …. Dan Dorfman … He was basically one of the first journalists to really use the medium of television to disseminate market information to the masses…(yes I know he was jailed for some dumb things he did etc etc but hear me out)… social media/blogging is the new medium today…. 
I guess you are all wondering what would happens with stocks Dorfman would speak about on cnn & early cnbc etc if are not familiar? They would MOVE and run the heck over market makers on the floor because they had no idea in heck why these stocks were moving. Floor traders called it getting “dorfed”…. Now you wonder why there are televisions all over the floor of exchanges…. it was for this very reason…… traders needed to see who and what was being spoken about on television. If traders saw him speaking or anyone for that matter about a stock they were making a market in the traders could hedge themselves and or get out of the way to not get run over… At the time television was the NEW THING…not all hedge funders and PM’s watched TV…. Now EVERYONE DOES….…Now for the parallel….
…..Now you have twitter, blogging etc… If you trade without these mediums in front of you displaying information you might get modern day “dorfed” because twitter/blogs could be alive with all the reasons why the stock your long is shitting all over itself and you cant find out any information on the catalyst for the move via mainstream readily available sources…. 
I believe the great majority of day/fundamental/swing etc traders in the world are still not fully aware of twitter/blogging about trading trends and happenings helps one join a school of fish navigating the markets as if the old trading floors are alive again in regards to information and idea flow…… As for the skeptics of twitter/blogging i feel they are much like those who doubted dorfman’s ability to move stocks via television….a shift is among us… To the new medium of information exchange and dissemination… 
My incorporation of twitter/blogging into my trading plan is a dovetail theory of efficient market theory…. I have access to a great deal of publicly available information PLUS I use & exploit(profit) from the human screener…. A massive school of fish sharing links/ ideas and “trades.. … Hedge funders and PM’s maybe slow to adopt twitter and monitor the flow of tweets through different verticals (organized tweets by topic) but I think they all soon will because collective thought can create momentum in either direction. I am sure a lot of funds are using key word recognition software which quantify’s sentiment etc though what I do is more of feel and scenario recognition from learned via trial and error. I apply a technical approach to trading learned over the years pre twitter to the modern market with much success.

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122738/feed 0 My Thoughts on Twitter/Trading & Adaptation (SPY) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122739?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122739#comments Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:14:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly


Hopper
I have been a part of the community observing, absorbing, and learning the ins and outs of collective human thought across the twitter medium for a number of years. Over this period of time I have honed my skill at discerning the “noise” from the real nuggets of actionable information which lead me to the “special” stocks of the day. These “special” stocks happen to be the ones which are in play but may not be on the mainstream media radar.
People/investors ask me if there is some sort of quantifiable formula behind my strategy of utilizing all that twitter brings us traders….. I always say there is a system which I follow in regards to pre determined loss and profit goals though the other half of the trade is based on feel and as queer as it sounds its an art. There is an art to understanding human thought process as a whole presented within the twitter medium. I can sit at a laptop and watch tweets, charts, news and then decide with greater than 59% accuracy which way the stocks will move and I use options to play the move.
Lets talk efficient market theory in relation to real time information flow mediums such as twitter for a quick second.. Everyone on twitter  has access to the same information… True to a point….they do have access to the information…… but do users know how to efficiently interpret the information and derive a signal from the information? Doubtful, though i do. 
The online twitter community is though to be a collective of rational individuals who are making
RATIONAL decisions regarding their own personal investments… Eh all true…a little proof 50cents recent tweets.. There was no rationalization for most of the buyers of the stock, just the hype and excitement of buying a stock sucked them in and hopes of rich’s.
Twitter and blogging has drastically increased the speed at which information flows and the the reach of this information is vast.. A great example of increased speed of information in flow in trading which older traders know a bit about, is  …. Dan Dorfman … He was basically one of the first journalists to really use the medium of television to disseminate market information to the masses…(yes I know he was jailed for some dumb things he did etc etc but hear me out)… social media/blogging is the new medium today…. 
I guess you are all wondering what would happens with stocks Dorfman would speak about on cnn & early cnbc etc if are not familiar? They would MOVE and run the heck over market makers on the floor because they had no idea in heck why these stocks were moving. Floor traders called it getting “dorfed”…. Now you wonder why there are televisions all over the floor of exchanges…. it was for this very reason…… traders needed to see who and what was being spoken about on television. If traders saw him speaking or anyone for that matter about a stock they were making a market in the traders could hedge themselves and or get out of the way to not get run over… At the time television was the NEW THING…not all hedge funders and PM’s watched TV…. Now EVERYONE DOES….…Now for the parallel….
…..Now you have twitter, blogging etc… If you trade without these mediums in front of you displaying information you might get modern day “dorfed” because twitter/blogs could be alive with all the reasons why the stock your long is shitting all over itself and you cant find out any information on the catalyst for the move via mainstream readily available sources…. 
I believe the great majority of day/fundamental/swing etc traders in the world are still not fully aware of twitter/blogging about trading trends and happenings helps one join a school of fish navigating the markets as if the old trading floors are alive again in regards to information and idea flow…… As for the skeptics of twitter/blogging i feel they are much like those who doubted dorfman’s ability to move stocks via television….a shift is among us… To the new medium of information exchange and dissemination… 
My incorporation of twitter/blogging into my trading plan is a dovetail theory of efficient market theory…. I have access to a great deal of publicly available information PLUS I use & exploit(profit) from the human screener…. A massive school of fish sharing links/ ideas and “trades.. … Hedge funders and PM’s maybe slow to adopt twitter and monitor the flow of tweets through different verticals (organized tweets by topic) but I think they all soon will because collective thought can create momentum in either direction. I am sure a lot of funds are using key word recognition software which quantify’s sentiment etc though what I do is more of feel and scenario recognition from learned via trial and error. I apply a technical approach to trading learned over the years pre twitter to the modern market with much success.

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/my-thoughts-on-twittertrading-adaptation-spy/122739/feed 0 The Ultimate Circuit Breaker: MLK Day & Steve Jobs (AAPL) http://www.themarketfinancial.com/the-ultimate-circuit-breaker-mlk-day-steve-jobs-aapl/122548?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-ultimate-circuit-breaker-mlk-day-steve-jobs-aapl http://www.themarketfinancial.com/the-ultimate-circuit-breaker-mlk-day-steve-jobs-aapl/122548#comments Mon, 17 Jan 2011 22:36:00 +0000 HedgeAccording.ly

Nasdaq futures today pre and post apple news 1 min

If the market were open today and the news Steve Jobs is taking a board approved leave of absence due to health concerns, we could have seen carnage… but we did not because the cash markets are closed today.

Globex traded till 11:30am, nasdaq off 30 handles at one point.. Germany Apple stocked traded down over 8%….How perfect the timing..They are pricing in a 5-7% move down in apple stock tomorrow, the 325 level is going to be key.

The ultimate circuit breaker… The issue must be serious,, ths news could have been released sunday, but it was not..I think the issue with jobs is serious, but what do i know..

Also take into account Apple reports EPS tomorrow after the bell and the coming week is a shortened trading week with OPEX friday..

*In my opinion the perfect timing for the Jobs news would be about 10 am friday morning after the stock has traded post earnings with volatility priced more accurately. you know… Goldman Sachs style..

To refresh… We all remember the SEC charging GS with mortgage fraud the morning of OPEX about 5 cycles ago. I never heard a more resounding synchronized pound of a trading desk the exact moment Goldmanboy fell out of bed tearing the entire market down with it. I saw a lot of traders blow up that day thinking GS
was gonna flush by throwing premium into OTM puts only to see them go out worthless on the last bounce of the day. ON the other side traders who were quick and positioned long vol and did not have hands tied up in other things they did quiet well. Those who have been laying out shorts in Apple stock up at each all time high break will probably be rewarded tomorrow. It might be a short reward but take remember to take profits when their exist, dont like mind games get in the way of your trading.

If Apple blows out EPS the entire days down move could be retraced in AH trading and it will be interesting watching apple will trade into the close. Though, if apple shits in the pool, which i doubt will happen, the market will crumble.. Just like MSFT did back in late 2000..

]]> http://www.themarketfinancial.com/the-ultimate-circuit-breaker-mlk-day-steve-jobs-aapl/122548/feed 0