In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 [...]
It was never easy being a central banker and the job has become much more difficult over the course of the last five years or so, but right now the task of guiding monetary policy and juggling the myriad of threats to economic stability is particularly…
A new working paper is available on arxiv.org This is a link to pdf file. AbstractWaveform cross correlation is an efficient tool for detection and characterization of seismic signals. The efficiency critically depends on the availability of master eve…
Not long after I penned The Options and Volatility ETPs Landscape, Credit Suisse (CS) added another buy-write / covered call ETP to the mix: the Credit Suisse Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO). With SLVO, Credit Suisse is essentially extending the…
Gavyn Davies criticise the Fed for wrong money policy targeting on unemployment rate, UER, instead of the rate of employment, E/P. He is right that the rate of unemployment does not express well the full capacity of th…
Figure 1. The difference between the headline and core CPI (both seasonally adjusted) since 1957. The V-shape suggests the similarity of the fall and rise paths. One can estimate the next peak extrapolating the current rise by the previous fall (…
Two years ago we presented a parsimonious model describing the evolution of employment/population ratio in Canada. In essence, this model is a modified Okun’s law since there exists a trade-off between the change in unemployment and employment…
Two years ago we presented a parsimonious model describing the evolution of employment/population ratio in Canada. In essence, this model is a modified Okun’s law since there exists a trade-off between the change in unemployment and employment…
The rate of unemployment, u, was very high (10%) in 2009. It has been often discussed that the fall in this rate is too slow historically. Figure 1 shows the evolution of u since 1980. There were two major peaks in 1982 (10.8%) and 1992 (7.8%). (All r…
A few hours ago, I reportedthat Canada gives the best example of accurate quantitative prediction of unemployment in developed countries and therefore extreme satisfaction for a researcher. I changed my mind when revisited the case of Australia with n…
