Look at the chart below and notice the closing cash print… spinner…. My tweet from today, early morning..

How is that for sensationalism? I am not excited, but the market did make year and 2010 and 2009 highs today. And i did sleep at a holiday INN last night… i think i said 1280 was going to be met soon, yesterday… Came sooner than i had anticipated…

Tomorrow we have nothing but air above 1284.25, focus on the round numbers above. Today the volume was low and choppy and the majority of the movement was in pre and post cash market trading, typical. After cash close futures highs were put in once again when no one is trading. Where are the traders?

Tomorrow watch the euro at the 1.31 level, if this level is to break the dollar will again move towards the ever sticky 81 level, keeping equities in check. I say this because our muted grind higher has been in place despite a stable dollar and rather volatile aussie $ and jpy. Watch gold creep higher as well… metals got their own agenda…

We could see 1400 in the spoos in 6 months then the cards come down if QE2 fails to do anything but push the market to the point of no return…. the train will crash into the canyon just like in back to the future after it pushed the Delorean up to 88.3 MPH.

Perhaps this train wreck will coincide with europe collapsing and everyone running for dollars.

spoos 1hr

Nothing changed today, we backfilled and touched on the same old prices in the S&P emini we have been stuck to for the past week. Bernanke has his finger up the bum of the market and we can all see he enjoys it.

So far this year, and the past two years the Spooz high is 1277, today we flirted with breaking 1265.50 downside but we were caught by all those buyers buying the the bottom of the band and selling the top of the band. How long does said strategy work when everyone trading employs the same strategy? Who knows. 1273.75 was the high today… tomorrow this will be the upside line int he sand.

The chart above is a 1 hour chart showing declining volume into the holiday’s and the santa rally. Notice
the moderate volume pick up as we moved to new highs into 2011, we are trending and slowly reaching the apex of a large ascending triangle which  should break out to the 1280 level sometime soon. IF currency markets make their move…..

Currency markets have been very volatile in their search for “fair” valuation this movement today actually reflected in the equities market as yesterday it did not. If the euro can stay below 1.30 and the dollar above 81-81.10 but bounce in between their channel the market isnt going anywhere, this leads me to believe the market is waiting to show its hands until some key levels are triggered.

enjoy the snow.

On the stream you may or may not have heard people talking about the NYSE tick readings. For those who do not understand what this indicator which is charted linearly actually tells you, it is used by traders to determine where business is being done whether on the bid or on the ask across NYSE stocks.

As you can see from the chart to the left the buy programs started almost exactly as we made fresh lows on the day of 1257.75. From that point we melted higher all day all the way up to 1270 on mouse farts and buy programs. Clearly the business for the majority for the day today coming
off the heels of the jobs number was on the bids with relative higher volume in relation to previous trading days. Spy volume average was only off by 5 million shares today, compare off nearly 30 million yesterday. If you look at the volume bars of the chat above you can see the volume was on red candles in the AM.

Now take a look at the NYSE 1 min TICK chart to the left, notice the time at which the TICK started making lower lows and higher highs in a trending fashion. Chicago time the buy programs came in at 12pm, NYC 1 pm.

Today is a very good example of how the TICK can be used to understand where programs are doing their business, and clearly this afternoon they were on the offers.

Have a good weekend. Lets hope for some volatility next week.

Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, and Agricultural Services. Archer Daniels Midland Company was founded in 1898 and is based in Decatur, Illinois.

 FUNDAMENTAL TIDBITS:

 Price/Sales Ratio:  0.31 (Great Value Stock)

Trailing P/E: 11

 (Both Numbers well below sector averages) 

COMPANY INVEST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

 ”A” is the 20 day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of a stock’s strength against its own past performance.  Crossing the 50 level is bullish and even more so considering the stock price is about to cross its 50 day moving average to the upside.  The RSI also put in a higher low which is also bullish.

 ”B” is the ADM daily candlestick price chart.  After putting in a bottom at the beginning of December ($28.53), ADM has rallied then put in a higher-low around Christmastime ($29.64) and appears on its way up once again.  If it can take out the last minor high ($31.48) the stock has a good chance to challenge the $33.86 top it made at the end of October, 2010.  That would be a nice 10%+ trade and worthy of looking at. As of this writing ADM could easily close above its 50 day moving average.  Doing so would be a buy signal.

 The MACD histogram “C” is putting in higher bars confirming a new uptrend.  What’s needed here is some increased buying volume to push the price over that 50 day moving average.  Once that happens, some shorts should cover propelling the stock price up towards our $33.86-$34) target.

 Finally, “D” is the ADX directional indicator.  There was a bullish DI cross made on Monday, 1/3/10.  Today’s closing looks like it will close higher than Monday’s high point, confirming the ADX buy signal.

 Bottom Line: Should the rally in the broader market continue, ADM looks like a solid trade that could yield 10-12% over the next 2-4 weeks.  Put a stop in at $29.50 (below the last low), and risk/reward is on your side here.

CURRENT PORTFOLIO:

Our picks at Company Invest have faired very well.  Disclosure:  I sold 3/4 of my EXM and TAN today (due to underperformance).  I still think they will be good in the longrun though.

ES_F 1 min “stairway to Heaven”

Today the above equation proved true once again, embrace the reality of the situation. Modern supply and demand theory must be thrown out of the door in our current market because no one participant is truly aware of the real demand for stocks.

We all know the supply, which shows itself on red candles when the bears glare their teeth. When you do not know where to shift the curve you have no idea where the true equilibrium price resides. This problem is precisely what makes our current market so dangerous to those who understand price action and economic theory… to some degree…

I a not claiming to be an economist nor am i claiming to be the next Buffet, i just call it how i see it.
Trade what you see and not what you think but always be prepared for what is around the next curve. Our index’s are riddled with headline risk, especially when the headlines fly around the financial and tech sector. This is the problem in a nut shell: OUR MARKETS ARE SO HIGHLY CORRELATED VIA ETF’s and dispersion trading strategies with buku dollars behind them when one big index/ETF component moves the whole unrelated market will get a yanking.

As for today, the stairway to heaven was the ticket to paradise. Take a look at the chart above and profit from what you see. Today was nothing but a buy stop hunting mission which they were indeed found. Clearly at the close of the cash market they took the SPOOZ off a bit with a bit of size because the markets are thinner than a piece of flash paper.

Stay tuned for my late night futures update….

Have you ever wondered what make the stock market rise and fall? If you watch the news at all, you will have seen the stock market prices tumble into a deep red sea one day, while rising through the clouds the very next day. Why stock market prices behave in such a way is a complex question with an even more complicated and intricate answer.

There are many factors that affect the price of stocks: Included is inflation, interest rates, domestic political unrest, war or terrorism, crime, fraud and oil or energy prices to name but a few.

All of these factors will drive the price of the stock market up or down. However regardless of these factors, the price of stocks is liquid and it is determined by how much buyers are prepared to spend and how much sellers will take for their stock.

Simply Demand and Supply — that which breathes life to the Stock Market. Understanding this concept can be a strenuous task, as it takes years of hard work to truly champion the seemingly endless abyss of market analysis.

Usually, to tame the rate of inflation, the federal government hikes interest rates. While this slows the inflation rate, it also raises the interest in small lending institution stocks (these are guaranteed by the government, thus VERY attractive here). This in turn moves investors away from equity stocks in lieu of the guarantee available with the small lenders. Risk here is lower, obviously.


This affects stock prices in several areas of the market. What happens is this: say a stock was selling at $20 per share before the interest rate went up from 5% to 6%. So the stock price is figured like this: 1/. 05= $20. After the hike, the price is now down to $16.67 per share or 1/. 06. This represents an almost 17% drop. Taken right across the market, this can adversely affect many other stocks as well and drive the market down temporarily.

A spike in oil prices can and will affect auto prices, food prices, gas prices and many others, thus effectively pushing inflation upwards. This presses the government to raise interest rates and we have the example above all over again.

War abroad can affect the market, too. A recent example is the war in Iraq, which has driven oil prices up to unprecedented levels. We have all seen the exorbitant gasoline prices that have been the result, but now we are seeing hikes in home lending, grocery prices and transportation costs also.

So as you can see, there are many scenarios that can unfold and affect how the stock market prices rise and fall. All these factors play out together in the rise and fall of the stock market. If you watch it closely, you can pick out the trends and accurately predict price hikes, interest rate increases or when inflation will occur again.


Another factor in how the stock market rises and falls is foreign currency rates. As a particular currency fluctuates, stock prices in companies based in that country will react accordingly. When the Japanese yen falls, so does interest in Japanese technology stocks. Conversely, if the US dollar falls to dangerous levels, our government simply prints some more paper money and places it in circulation. This, in my personal opinion, creates a false sense of security in the economy.

US Fed Printing Money to Avoid Immediate Banking Collapse = Higher Long-term Rates

However you look at it, stock prices affect how we live each coming day. All aspects of our daily routines are affected: Grocery prices, gas prices and the cost of living just to name a few. So watch the stock market closely. It affects you whether you know it or not.

Remember, what makes or breaks a Winner is passion for the simplicity, not the lust for the rewards. Years of endless dedication to analyzing price highs and lows, tireless hours spent searching site after site for the latest news headlines — searching for that one instant mouse click that could skyrocket your portfolio. Your heartbeat raises, your palms become sweaty, you look at your computer screen and you smile. Why? Because you realize you have now become what you were meant to be: An Investment Mogul.

Investing is not just a way of making money for me — Investing is my passion, my desire, my love in life.

What does investing mean to you?